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Ensemble forecasting techniques have made significant progress in recent years and proved to be essential in hydrological forecasts. There is an ever increasing expectation for good forecast quality as many more organisations, including basin authorities, water managers and emergency response authorities, adopt ensemble forecast systems. The value of ensemble forecasting becomes even more apparent when one considers its potential socio-economic benefit for public safety, flood control and reservoir management.

However, more research is still required to improve not only the reliability of meteorological forecasts, through post-processing and downscaling techniques, but also to assess all the predictive uncertainties involved in the hydro-meteorological forecast chain. Forecast predictability can be further enhanced through data assimilation and new strategies for communicating uncertain forecasts can contribute to provide useful information to decision-makers.

The session aims to bring together scientists and engineers from hydrology, meteorology and the social sciences, as well as practitioners and stakeholders to evaluate the potential of ensemble forecast techniques in pre-operational and/or operational forecasting systems. Contributions will cover but are not restricted to the following topics:

• Hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting studies with different hydrological and climatic regimes that can lead to a reliable assessment of the ensemble techniques;
• Methods or standards that have been developed to assess or benchmark the performance of ensemble rainfall-runoff modelling.
• Pre- and post-processing of forecasts
• Methods and products for efficient communication of probabilistic forecasts and their use in practical decision making
• Practical applications of ensembles in operational systems.

We encourage contributions that also document problems, failures as well as successes encountered in the practice of operational ensemble forecasting.

[+] 中文摘要

[-] 中文摘要

近几年集合预报技术经历了不断的发展完善，在水文预报中逐渐发挥起了重要的作用。越来越多的单位开始采用集合预报技术，这里面包括各个级别的流域和水资源管理部门，灾害响应部门等。使用集合预报技术的潜在社会经济价值已经变得越来越显著，尤其是在公共安全、防洪和水库管理等方面。

尽管我们已经意识到了集合预报技术的重要性，很多相关技术仍然有待开发和利用。我们不仅需要提高集合气象预报的准确率，不断改进对气象预报的后加工和尺度转换的技术，还需要评估集合气象和集合水文预报链中引入的各项不确定性。预报的准确性可以通过数据同化技术进一步提高。转达和沟通预报的不确定性可以为决策者提供更多有用的信息。

本次会议旨在为水文学、气象学和社会科学的科学家和工程师创造一次交流和对话的机会，共同讨论集合预报技术应用于准业务和业务运行中的潜力和展望。会议讨论主要包括以下题目：

• 水文气象集合预报技术在各类气候和水文地质流域的应用研究成果；
• 评估集合水文预报准确性的方法或标准；
• 集合气象预报的预处理和后处理技术；
• 有效的传达和信息沟通方法和它们在决策制定中的应用；
• 集合预报技术业务运行实例分析。

我们也鼓励更广范围内的讨论和交流，比如在准业务运行和业务运行实践遇到的问题和困难等。