Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System
    - a next generation expert system for flood warning and risk analysis
    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster across the globe. It is the worst natural disaster in the UK. Annual flood damage in the UK is about £1.5 billion and expected to increase to £3.5 billion over the next few years (Association of British Insurers). Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst among recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Against this background, the establishment of effective flood event forecasting and risk analysis systems has become a priority, especially in many flood prone countries including China and the UK.

    At King's College London, a novel hydro-climatic flood prediction and risk analysis framework has been successfully demonstrated in the Upper Severn Catchment under the UK NERC support and subsequently in the Upper Huai Catchment with the ICUK partnership grant (PG) support. The latter was jointly developed with Hohai University, a world leading hydrology research institute in China. The new technology integrates a multiple numerical weather/climate prediction system through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) with hydrological and hydraulic models to offer an effective, state-of-the-art early forecasting system for flood event prediction and risk analysis. The feasibility and commercial promise of the software were also verified during the PG phase. The system is expected to satisfy the unmet technological demands in the field of flood prediction and risk analysis. Such a software system will bring significant benefits and commercial value to both private and public sectors. Potential end-users can be insurance companies (using flood risk maps to estimate loss values and calculate premium to be allocated to specific regions), engineering consulting firms (to provide sound climate-proof design for flood defenses and other hydraulic structures), research and educational institutions and regional government authorities.